Yesterday, writing about a possible challenge to Congressman Chris Shays from citizen Ned Lamont, Genghis Conn wrote this:
Lamont does have some advantages. Hes filthy rich, for starters, and he has a ready-made core of true believers who will campaign hard for him. He also has the distinct advantage of not being Diane Farrell. Given that, I think he would definitely win Bridgeport and Stamford, probably win Norwalk, and maybe, if hes lucky, pick up Fairfield, Weston or Westport.
It wont be enough.
I disagree. It very well could be enough.
First of all, this post is not a prediction – its two years out and no one has declared, so no predictions. Also, this post is not about ideas or ideology (if you want to discuss those, I suggest starting a forum) – its about numbers (which, for the record, are rounded below).
Let us assume that Chris Shays retains 100% of Alan Schlesinger’s Senate votes from the 4th CD – 17,939. Further, give Ned Lamont 90% of his Senate votes and give Shays the other 10% – 75,065 for Lamont and an additional 8,341 for Shays, bringing his total to 26,280.
What is left is Joe Lieberman’s Senate votes. I think we can safely assume that Shays will get 100% of Joe’s Republican votes (calculated using exit poll data) – 40,052 bringing his total to 66,332. For the sake of argument, give 75% of Joe’s unaffiliated voters (32,009) to Shays and 25% (10,670) to Lamont, bringing their respective totals to 98,340 for Shays and 85,734 for Lamont.
The remainder is the 27,358 registered Democrats who voted for Joe for Senate. There really isn’t any possible way to even guess at what those voters will do, but if 75% of them go for Lamont (20,519) and 25% for Shays (6,840), Lamont would win 106,253-105,180.
Obviously, this is all guess work. It doesn’t take into account voters who only showed up to vote for Joe or voters who only vote in Presidential elections. Farrell was hamstrung by (relative to the rest of the CD) low turnout in Bridgeport – can Lamont close that gap? Will there be a Democrat at the top of the ticket with substantial coatails? Would Joe be joined to Shays’ hip in an effort to convince his supporters to vote Republican in the 4th CD?
I don’t know the answers to those questions and much can happen between now and November, 2008. But if Ned Lamont wants to go to DC, he should be looking at this race very closely. This is a race that can be won.
Very interesting post.
Big variable: presidential nominees. If Giuliani is the GOP nominee, that could motivate Republican turnout in Fairfield County.
Here’s a question: what would make 75% of the Dems who voted for Joe change their mind about Lamont? Party loyalty?
That is the big question mark – I imagine that alot of what motivated them to vote for Joe was loyalty to Joe. Freed of that, a mixture of party loyalty and two years to make his case could work.
If pro-choice and pro-same sex marriage Giuliani wins the Republican nomination, I’ll eat my hat. That said, the nominee variable could swing the other way as well – How is turnout effected by Obama’s presence on the ballot? Or even Dodd?
Numbers? That’s the most exauhsted logic I’ve ever heard….back to politics 101 Gabe. Why not consider Congressional voters for a congressional race?
But you are right in that Ned would have a slight “numbers” advantage, in that D’s out number R’s. However, the ballgame is in the U’s and Ned hasn’t shown us much there
If Dodd wins the nomination I’ll eat my face.
I’m not sure that just loyalty to Joe motivated those particular voters. A lot of them are old school Democrats who live in the Naugatuck Valley, and they tend to be more conservative than Dems statewide. If they perceive Lamont as being too liberal, Shays isn’t a bad alternative.
If Ned Lamont beats Chris Shays….I’ll eat Genghis’ face!
It would certainly help if our party actually backed the candidate this time around. But I think they’re already gearing up to support Ned should he run. Lamont had a prominent place at the Dodd rally, and it’s interesting how other Dem VIP’s interacted with him.
Dems are in for two tough congressional races in 2008. It’s more likely than not that Rob Simmons will return to challenge Joe Courtney in the 2nd, which will be just as difficult a race, if not more so, than 2006 for Courtney–and then there’s the 4th.
If Democrats can unite behind a candidate–even if it’s Lamont–quickly and start putting together an organization, they have a shot. So CGG is probably right, if Lamont gets in he’ll probably have significant Dem support unless there’s another challenger.
You must be kidding me. How on earth is Lamont going to beat Shays when he couldn’t even come close to winning the 4th in the Senate race? Also, it’s no stretch to say that Lamont would win Norwalk, Stamford, and Bridgeport. The question is, will he win by enough to offset what will happen in the other 13 towns?
Lamont will be portrayed as a leftist, someone that won’t appeal to the U’s in any of the towns of the 4th. Farrell did well in some of the more Republican towns (for a Democrat). With the kind of support that Lamont will get in those towns alone he will get clobbered.
Lamont doesn’t yet have the mainstream appeal to pull in U’s. How hard will it be for him to become mainstream? No one knows, because for the average CT voter, Lamont means anti-Iraq, and that’s it. Clearly, that won’t work with a Democratic majority in the House now.
I’m sorry to say, Mr. Lamont will not be going to Washington in the 4th CD.
Demsin08, one of Lamont’s first priorities would have to be reintroducing himself to the voters. If Joe Lieberman’s campaign themes can change so drastically from the primary to the general, Ned can do the same in two years. Ned isn’t a natural campaigner, but he is a likable guy. If voters in the 4th really had the opportunity to get to know him (and they would if he started NOW) I think they’d feel comfortable with sending him to congress in 08.
CGG -
Voters in the 4th will NOT tolerate a campaign beginning now. In fact, if he started actively campaigning before March of 2008 he would be in big trouble.
The amount of campaign material that landed in the 4th, from Ned, Joe, Chris, and Diane was enough to drive the 4th insane. He has to wait to begin. It’s simply a matter of voters being sick of politics in the 4th for the time being.
Ned has a mountain to climb – he’s a known quantity, but not in the ways taht will help him get elected in the 4th. He can’t start changing that perception for some time. He can raise money, learn about the issues, but that’s about it. This isn’t the time to campaign.
I predict any Dem can beat Shays in 2008. CT voters aren’t dumb. They tend to vote their self-interest.
What will become obvious over the next two years is that when it comes to bringing home the bacon, Chris Shays will prove worthless in a Pelosi-led Congress. A freshman Democrat, otoh, would receive generous support going forward.
What consistently amazes me is that FFLD County folks tolerate their extreme traffic woes. Where is CT’s “Big Dig”?
True Blue- You really raise the level of debate here. Congratualtions on being the only consistently obnoxious poster on this blog.
(ahem! no insulting other posters!)
Don’t worry Genghis. I can take it from morons like RealityBites.
When they start in with the ad hominems, it is only b/c they can’t reply substantively. What makes anyone think the 4th is trending Shays way?
Obviously Lamont would start out well behind Shays. Shays beat Farrell by something like 6k votes and Lamont trailed her total by another 15k or so. One thing about the 2006 4th district race is that Lieberman’s coattails very likely won the day for Shays.
My guess is that Lamont would trail Shays 43-57 if a poll were conducted today. But if 2008 is another strong year for the Democrats, a well financed Democrat with strong name recognition could turn the tables on Shays and ride the party’s presidential candidate’s coattails to a narrow victory. That’s one argument for why a Lamont candidacy passes the laugh test. Another is that I don’t see a stronger alternative candidate in the wings.
Although for some inexplicable reason, the phrase “third time’s the charm” pops into my head whenever I hear Diane Farrell’s name.
Whatever happens in the 4th, my money is on Joe Courtney beating Rob Simmons in their rematch providing the most entertainment (for Democrats) among the 2008 congressional races.
It’s not that the 4th is trending Shays’ way. It’s that in the most anti-Republican year, he still managed to win. He was vulnerable in 2006. What will Ned’s platform be on? Shays is out of power. Any bit of pork he brings back is still something he can lord over him.
The problem is, he always brought back the minimum and that didn’t make people kick him out. That won’t change under a Democratic house.
Maybe the lesson of Diane Farrell’s candidacies is that Shays can’t be beaten on Iraq alone.
The 4th isn’t trending Shays’ way–in fact, quite the opposite. He is required to be the most moderate and inoffensive of Republicans to win there. The next U.S. Representative from the 4th will be a Democrat. Whether that happens in 2008 or later is largely up to Shays.
That I won’t dispute at all. However, I think the seat is Shays’ until he decides to step back. He’s been there too long, and has an image built up around him that is very difficult to pierce.
That being said, I’d love to see all 5 districts send Democrats to Congress. I just don’t think it can happen yet.
I’m not sure many Lieberman voters, if any, will support Lamont against Shays. Lieberman’s supporters were voting for moderation and against the fringe of either party. (I’m not saying that’s what they got. It’s what they wanted.) Shays is without question more moderate than Lieberman, and I think he’ll retain the support he had in 2006, and possibly win over some Farrell voters who view Lamont as part of the party’s fringe.
If I was Ned Lamont, I wouldn’t touch this race with a ten foot pole, or ten million dollars.
Sadly, unless Malloy runs–and i doubt he will–, Shays will probably coast to reelection in 08.
Malloy has made it very clear to anyone who asks that he has 0 interest in running for Congress.
Malloy wants to be governor. Period.
A shame. Malloy would beat Chris Shays like a rented mule. Too bad he’s too ambitious. Lamont’s maybe the only Dem not surnamed Farrell who could lose to Shays in the 4th. How about Sens. MacDonald or Finch?
Had Lieberman won the primary, Farrell would be in the House right now – which is a nice way of saying that a Lamont candidacy is a joke for the fourth district. I’ll go out on a limb here and say, were he to face a tough primary challenger, he would lose …
I really think Bill Finch should give a run for Congress another shot. He does an outstanding job representing his district in Hartford, and I truly believe he outworks every other State Senator. Would he win? Maybe, maybe not, but I’m certain he could run circles around Ned Lamont. He is much more moderate than Farrell or Lamont, and stuck with Lieberman in 2006. I think with some effort, he would even be able to pick up Lieberman’s support against Shays. Finch is one of Connecticut’s best legislators, and the 4th CD would be lucky to have him in Washington.
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In respect to Bill Finch in Washington, isn’t he a criminal? Didn’t he get into a bar-fight in Storrs? Guess it wouldn’t make him any different than some other Congressmen.