2000 Connecticut GOP Primary Map

I have mapped a random thing!

Actually, it isn’t as random as all that. Connecticut Republicans haven’t had a presidential primary since 2000–when a very different John McCain defeated a very different George W. Bush to take the state’s delegates 51%-49%. They’re having another one in February, so it’s worth taking a look back to last time.

I have mapped this race, and here it is:

2000goptn.PNG2000 Republican Presidential Primary

I wasn’t expecting this map to tell me much of anything. I didn’t think I’d see any sort of geographical pattern at all. But there is one, isn’t there? There’s a big blot of Bush centered on Waterbury, and a smaller one centered on Hartford. Southeastern Connecticut Republicans went big for McCain–as did Republicans in the extreme west of the state. Bush lost his dad’s hometown of Greenwich, for instance. I have no idea why this should be the case. Maybe something to do with party structure and loyalty?

So what does it tell us about what Republicans will do in 2008? Really, almost nothing. The situation is so different now that it’s impossible to compare the two elections. President Bush has turned into a very different man from Candidate Bush, and McCain 2008 doesn’t have nearly the appeal of McCain 2000. I’d be tempted to say that McCain voters from 2000 might favor Giuliani, but I honestly have very little evidence for that.

I’m going to map the 2004 Democratic primary as well to get an idea of what Democrats might do–but again, I don’t think it’s going to be that instructive. I just like mapping things.

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8 responses to “2000 Connecticut GOP Primary Map

  1. Map away, GC! I’m a map freak too.

  2. to an amateur, it certainly looks as if votes can be bought in the Valley. Sorry all, but Waterbury is the place where the forces of slime meet the forces of evil. (and West Haven, too!).

    Someone should map this election with the Lamont/Lieberman primary. There is a huge overlap.

  3. Sorry, old man here… how about a more legible/higher resolution color key?

  4. Click on the picture for a higher-resolution image. You may need to click on the image again (if your mouse becomes a magnifying glass) to zoom in to full scale.

  5. Rudy Giuliani’s presidential stump speech is a can-do talk about his fighting crime in New York City, being a steady presence after 9/11 and recognizing a continuing threat of terrorism.

    His strategists entice insiders with a simpler, more seductive pitch: Giuliani is the only Republican who can “expand the map,” turning solid-blue states into battlegrounds.

    http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-poll1111.artnov11,0,5999559.story

    Our subjects also exhibited a much stronger empathetic response to a minute-long excerpt from a stump speech by Mr. Thompson than they did to an excerpt of a Giuliani speech. This connectedness toward Mr. Thompson did not show up in the swing voters’ answers on the questionnaires, but it suggests that if swing voters see more of both candidates, Mr. Thompson may gain an advantage over Mr. Giuliani.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/11/opinion/11freedman.html?pagewanted=2

  6. Hey Genghis, do you take requests?

    I’d love to see a map that shows commuting information. It’s more related to your thread about regionalism, but it’s a map idea, so I put it here.

    My idea would be to take the information available on the town profiles at http://www.ct.gov published by CERC. If we could identify the towns with net commuter positives (i.e. more commute into than out of), perhaps we could identify logical regions. We’d have to throw out the out-of-state commuters, I suppose. We could also look at commuter destinations for those towns with net positive commuting out-of-town.

  7. Huh. That’s an interesting idea. I’ll look into it and see if a map is feasible.

  8. How to define regions in Connecticut… I took the CERC commuter data for the towns around New Haven (city) and shaded them in by hand on a blank CT towns map. I looked at towns that “keep” most of their commuters, towns that “send” most of their commuters, and if they do send most, then what was the town to which they sent the most. I wish I could show it to you, since I think it paints a pretty clear picture of a contiguous region. Had I more patience and time, I bet it would be possible for other towns as well.

    My results are nothing really surprising, I suppose: New Haven, Woodbridge, Bethany, Hamden, East Haven and North Branford form a core.

    A second ring of towns who “keep” a plurality of commuters, but overall send more commuters than not, and of those they do send, most go to New Haven: West Haven, Orange, Cheshire, Wallingford, North Haven, Branford, Guilford, Madison, Killingworth, and Clinton. (It’s a little surprising how far east it goes.)

    Of the other towns in New Haven County, the lower valley sends most to Shelton, the upper valley to Waterbury, Milford to Bridgeport (New Haven a close second), and Meriden keeps most, but then sends many to Wallingford. Southbury sends most to Danbury(!)

    So clearly, New Haven County has little economic or even social meaning as it currently is configured, but a redefined New Haven County (e-w Orange to Clinton, s-n New Haven to Cheshire) would make some sense!

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