There’s a year to go before the 2008 legislative elections, but it’s never too early to think about which races might be worth watching next year. The following list is based mostly on results from 2006. This metric was somewhat useful for the 2006 election, although there will be races that drop off this list, and new ones that will be added. Here’s the preliminary list:
7th District
2006 Result
John Kissel (i) (R) 16,979 (52%)
Bill Kiner (D) 15,254 (48%)
Kissel always has a tough race, but he handled former State Rep. Bill Kiner quite well in 2006. Id be surprised if Kiner runs again (he also lost to Kissel in 2004). Theres been a rumor that former mayor Pat Tallarita is thinking of running. Given the rejection of his Democrats at Enfields polls this year (a Democrat cant win the district without Enfield), Im thinking thats a bad idea.
Leans Republican
————
8th District
2006 Result
Thomas Herlihy (i) (R) – 19,336 (51%)
Steve Berry (D) – 18,969* (49%)
Herlihy was lucky to escape 2006 with his seathis margin of victory was a mere 367 votes. Everything depends on who the Democrats recruit to run against him this year. It isnt known whether Berry is planning on a rematch.
Toss-Up
———–
18th District
2006 Result
Andrew Maynard (D) 15,107 (51%)
Lenny Winkler (R) 14,275 (49%)
A close open-seat race in 2006 may not translate into a close 2008 race. Im actually thinking that if Joe Courtney does well that Maynard is pretty safe.
Leans Democratic
———–
21st District
2006 Result
Dan Debicella (R) – 16,476 (52%)
Christopher Jones (D) 15,099* (48%)
Another tight open seat race in 2006hard to predict for 2008. This one could be affected by Rudy Giuliani and Jim Himes, should either find success. This part of the state is getting more Democratic, so that could also be a factor.
Leans Republican
———–
22nd District
2006 Result
Bill Finch (i) (D) – 14,744 (54%)
Robert Russo (R) – 12,354 (46%)
Finch has a new job (we assumecourt action pending!). Theres been a question about whether hell actually keep his state senate seat through the short session next year. If he does hold on, this will be an open seat and a toss-up for 2008. If he resigns before then, there will be special election to fill out the remainder of his term. Either vote will be competitive.
Toss Up
———–
* = includes votes on WFP line
There are a few other places where surprise gains could be made by either party next year: the 9th (currently held by freshman Democrat Paul Doyle), the 16th (held by Republican Sam Caligiuri), the 24th (currently David Cappiello (R), but an open seat in 2008) and maybe the 17th (Democrat Joe Crisco) or the 31st (Democrat Tom Colapietro).
Public financing is another variable, of course. I’m hoping that means more candidates in races previously uncontested, and more competitive races overall.
Look for an early list of House races next week!
Connecticut Local Politics 
Berry has been very quiet in the 8th if he is planning on running again. Is Herlihy even running? Hasn’t Rep. Witkos set his sights on this seat whether Herlihy runs or not? Will be an interesting race either way as the heart of the district, Simsbury just went Dem with Mary Glassman back in charge.
gossipgirl? Didn’t I just see you on TV?
Great opening dialogue, GC.
I would disagree on two races.
21st District
2006 Result
Dan Debicella (R) – 16,476 (52%)
Christopher Jones (D) – 15,099* (48%)
‘….this part of the state is getting more Democratic, so that could also be a factor.’
While the 4th CD is trending D, this is a very strong R area. Look at Perillo’s state rep win, and Lauretti’s what, 8th term?? The opportunity was when it was an open seat. Dan has it for life.
I’d be more inclined to label Finch’s seat lean D now, esp, given Monroe’s First Selectman’s race.
Cough…20…cough…
[quote comment=”22246″]Cough…20…cough…[/quote]
Could be. Depends on who’s running… 🙂
If DeLuca actually ran again, whether he’s kicked out and returns or still in office at the time, it would certainly make for an interesting spectacle, if nothing else. His seat has been held by an R longer than any other in the State, but under these circumstances, who knows?
I admit I am biased but I don’t see Senator Andrea Stillman of the 20th district having any problems in 2008, no matter who the Rs chose as a candidate. She has been an effective Senator for constituents and has had a high profile on any number of Governor’s Commissions and Special Senate Committees during her terms in the Senate. She is well known and well liked in her district.
Bill,
I’m confident that this is a situation in which we are both biased in our own way. However, I’ll simply note that service in Hartford and name ID in a spralling senate district are two different things.
Genghis,
While I agree that the strength of a challenge candidate certainly matters, I will take off my candidate hat and put on my operative hat for a moment.
In 2006 District 20 was 1) the only district where a R challenger outraised and outspent an incumbent D, 2) the number 3 R challenge district in the state by margin and 3) the ONLY district where the incumbent Democrats margin of victory DECLINED between 2004 and 2006 (as it went from an open seat to an incumbent seat!). All of this was accomplished by a virtually unknown challenger who’d never run for public office before.
I’d say that indicates a certain opportunity for a strong challenge – whether by that person or by a present R officeholder in the district (4 towns of which have Republican First Selectmen…).
Just my .02 US.
Yesterday’s CT Post had a pretty scathing editorial calling on Finch to resign. “The argument that he could do more good for the city by holding onto his seat discounts the harm he would do by giving his first job less than the attention it deserves. Nothing he could bring home from Hartford would override the problems he would create here.”
Does anyone think Finch would even bring home more from Hartford? I suspect Bridgeport wouldn’t receive another dime in bonding for Steel Point as long as Finch was playing these games with the seat.
Post also said State Rep. T.R. Rowe is the likely favorite to take the open Senate seat, whenever it opens. Not Russo?
Does Finch want to hold 2 political offices for his own benefit or does the Senate Majority Leader Don Williams want Finch to stay for the benefit of a Democratic overide? If the former reason then he only wants to double dip -and I’m not talking momba but for his own mula-$150 plus bennies from both jobs. However, what will Williams do for theFinch to stay in the Senate nest? Property tax reform? No question if Finch flees, the most qualified Democratic candidate is former State Rep. Lee Samowitz from the Black Rock section of Bridgeport, who sacrficed himself for the benefit of the General Assembly during redistricting, who needs no on job training and was well liked in in district
>>I don’t see Senator Andrea Stillman of the 20th district having any problems in 2008
This is the woman that wanted to ban cell phones near gas pumps?
There is no way that the mayor of Bridgeport will have a second job. Being mayor of Bridgeport should be a 24/7/365 job.