The 22nd District: Broken Down

The 22nd Senate District, General Election results, 2000-2006
There’s a couple of things of interest about the 22nd district that I discovered in the making of this map which may come into play tomorrow. The obvious one is that Trumbull is the battleground. Monroe and Bridgeport are going to go for the Republican and Democrat respectively by a relatively comfortable margin. However, if Russo can run up the numbers on Mulligan in Trumbull, he’ll win. If, however, Mulligan stays close to Russo, say within 5%, he’ll have a good chance.

It isn’t immediately apparent, but it’s Trumbull and not Bridgeport that really decides this seat. More actual people have voted in Trumbull than in Bridgeport in every election year since 2000. Finch has been fortunate that his margins in Bridgeport have been so large that he’s been able to survive.

Another thing of note is that Finch’s margin in Bridgeport has been in decline since 2000. In that year, he won roughly 70% of the vote in Bridgeport. In 2002, he won 68%. In 2004, 64%, and in 2006, 63%. This declining margin could spell trouble for Mulligan.

Of course, this is a special election, which means that turnout will be depressed and the convention wisdom is out the window. But if these maps are any indication, this district will be back up for grabs come November, no matter who wins tomorrow.


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