Off and Running

Don Williams will be on Face the State this weekend, and yes, he too is interested in running for governor in 2010.

That should just about complete the Democratic field. Let’s see who we have thus far, separated into two tiers based on the likelihood of their winning the nomination:

First Tier

These are the candidates who have the best shot at the nomination at the moment.

Richard Blumenthal – If he runs, many of the other contenders will drop out, though one or two might stay in to make it a race. Whether or not he will run, however, is up in the air as usual. We should find out next month.

Dan Malloy – He’s better-known than he was two years ago, and he has a decent amount of support. If Blumenthal doesn’t run, he’d start looking like the frontrunner. A likely candidate to drop out if Richard Blumenthal steps in–he at least has a job to go back to in Stamford.

Susan Bysiewicz – Don’t let her less-than-stellar performance two years ago fool you, she is capable of running a strong race. If Blumenthal runs, look for her to run for attorney general instead.

Second Tier

These are the candidates who are less likely to win the nomination, at least right now. Some are close to the first tier, some have little to no chance.

Jim Amann – Amann, I think, is the candidate most likely to stay in if Richard Blumenthal runs. He has absolutely nothing to lose. But even if Blumenthal stays out, it’s hard to see Amann winning the nomination right now. He is not well-known outside of political circles, and his record as Speaker is not particularly strong.

Nancy Wyman – She’s won statewide races, but is still largely unknown to the voters.

Don Williams – Take Jim Amann and make him about 20% less interesting. Williams would have to come up with compelling reasons for Democrats to follow him just to be heard.

John DeStefano – Democrats with a bad taste in their mouths from 2006 (and that’s most of them) would think twice about DeStefano. He’s better off in New Haven, where he can and does make a difference.

Again, everyone seems to be playing the same old game of Waiting for Blumenthal. We’re playing it, too. He is set to announce his future plans next month, at which point the field will become an awful lot clearer.

As for the Republicans… they’re waiting to see if Jodi Rell is serious about another run. I suspect that she is, but she’s been known to surprise us before.

Face the State‘s website has their series of interviews with all of the above, except for Williams (who is on this weekend).

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11 responses to “Off and Running

  1. Is there anyone in CT who really thinks Dick Blumenthal actually wants to be governor? He has had his sights set on the Senate for too long and the guessing game over whether or not he will run for governor every four years is a little bit boring (it’s not like he is the second-coming of anything).

    None of these Democratic candidates really spark my interest and I doubt Rell can be beat in 2010 which is sad because her popularity springs from the “friendly old lady next door” feeling she amits rather than substantive accomplishment (because she hasn’t had any).

    My prediction: Blumenthal doesn’t run and Malloy and Bysiewicz battle it out with Amann looming in the background. Malloy will prevail and lose to Rell albeit by a closer margin than DeStefano did in 2006.

  2. ….in New Haven, where he can and does make a difference.

    Yeah…. you could put it that way.

  3. Don Williams will be on Face the State this weekend, and yes, he too is interested in running for governor in 2010.

    It’d look really good if he had supporters on there with him. He should get members of his own Senate Dem caucus on the air… maybe start with Sen. Joan “My parking space isn’t quite worth the $1billion you want for it Don” Hartley.

  4. Btw, there must be some state reps and senators who are better versed in comprehensive policy reform than the people you mentioned… though I understand your perspective on one’s ability to win… I’m just saying I’d prefer to see others go for it.

    Having said that, Crusher will make it fun. He sure gives some great sound bites! I hope MLNs guerrilla vlogging team follows him to each DTC meeting and gets every minute on videotape. I can’t even imagine the gems that we’d have by next New Years!… and one thought on that… having been Speaker, Crusher will almost certainly have lots of locally known State Reps to introduce him at DTCs. That’s probably a big plus he’ll have over any Mayors or Constitutional officers. And I doubt DTCs know their State Senators as well as they know their Reps.

  5. If you have to do tiers instead of just a list, putting Blumenthal into a tier with anyone else is silly. Why not have tiers that are a) people who win statewide office, b) people who run for and lose statewide office, and c) people who have never run statewide?

    By the way, how is Malloy better known statewide than he was 2 years ago? I’m not aware of anything high-profile that he’s done since Dec 2006.

    The case for Williams is short: SB1. I’ve heard worse cases though.

    John DeStefano – Democrats with a bad taste in their mouths from 2006 (and that’s most of them) would think twice about DeStefano.

    Most of them, huh? Maybe you could elaborate — or stop pretending like you know something just to dress up the content-free sentences that make up your analyses. I’d rather get advice from Richard Duffee.

  6. Having said that, Crusher will make it fun. He sure gives some great sound bites! I hope MLNs guerrilla vlogging team follows him to each DTC meeting and gets every minute on videotape.

    His next DTC appearance is January 5th, I believe.

  7. The case for Williams is short: SB1. I’ve heard worse cases though.

    To elaborate — not only did Williams propose SB1, but he travelled the state doing community meetings in support of it.

    Talk is cheap, so I have to admire when someone puts in the work out of session to build a constituency for their policies.

  8. Dan Malloy – He’s better-known than he was two years ago, and he has a decent amount of support. If Blumenthal doesn’t run, he’d start looking like the frontrunner. A likely candidate to drop out if Richard Blumenthal steps in–he at least has a job to go back to in Stamford.

    Everything we saw of Dan Malloy in 2006, and really as long as he’s been mayor, leads me to believe that he will be an outstanding candidate and an even better governor. His record in Stamford is one that any mayor would love to have. While Connecticut hemorrhages jobs, Stamford continues to be the one bright spot. To have that kind of success statewide, I would imagine, is exactly what 2010 is going to be about.

  9. Why not have tiers that are a) people who win statewide office, b) people who run for and lose statewide office, and c) people who have never run statewide?

    d) people who always think about running for a more significant statewide office, but never actually do it?

    I’d rather get advice from Richard Duffee.

    So why are you here instead of there?

  10. Most of them, huh? Maybe you could elaborate — or stop pretending like you know something just to dress up the content-free sentences that make up your analyses. I’d rather get advice from Richard Duffee.

    Oh snap – dem be fightin’ words.

  11. Genghis Conn said:

    John DeStefano – Democrats with a bad taste in their mouths from 2006 (and that’s most of them) would think twice about DeStefano. He’s better off in New Haven, where he can and does make a difference.

    To which matt w replied:

    Most of them, huh? Maybe you could elaborate…..

    Come on Matt; DeStefano ran almost as badly as the wicked shrill rhymes-with-witch Julie Belaga did for us in the GOP in 1986. (She was so lovely that many of the Republicans I know voted for O`Neil that year; I certainly did.)

    Candidates that survive state-wide primaries have a history in CT of going on to lose as they’ve turned off too many members of their party’s supporters for the primary opponent.
    It’s clear that Rell enjoyed a substantial Democratic cross over vote.

    Console yourself with the fact that at least he did better than the 20% Morrison garnered in `90.

    Never-the-less, in a state where Democrats seriously outnumber Republicans; for the Democrat to fail to break 40% of the vote speaks volumes NOT solely to the popularity of the Republican candidate, but as to how horrifically poor a candidate the DeStefano was.

    Deoesn’t photograph well either.
    Much like New Haven’s Congressional Representative, DeStefano too would be more attractive in a full Burka.

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