Everyone Responds to Q-Poll

Both Dan Malloy and Jim Amann responded to this morning’s Quinnipiac University poll that showed them trailing Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz by wide margins. Said Malloy:

When I ran for Governor in 2006, there wasn’t a single public poll that showed me within shouting distance of my Democratic opponent — yet I won the Democratic Convention and came within a few thousand votes of winning the Democratic primary. Almost two years in advance of Election Day, the conversation among Democrats about who is best-positioned to win the general election in 2010 has just begun, and it’s a conversation I’m eager to have. When the time is right, I’m confident our Party will nominate the candidate who has a proven track record of creating jobs, balancing budgets, holding down taxes, raising test scores in schools, building affordable housing, and lowering crime – all while effectively and efficiently managing government.

I remember one response that Malloy had to this same question back in 2005, that by the day of the primary, voters going into the booth would know who the candidates were. This is very true. Bysiewicz does have higher name recognition, and that will be a boon to her, but by next August the race should be much closer. It’s worth pointing out that Malloy’s numbers climbed steadily through 2006, though he fell just short at the end to John DeStefano.

Jim Amann also dismissed the poll, though he made a rather bold prediction as well. From a release sent around by the Amann campaign:

Former state Speaker of the House James A. Amann today said he is not worried about the recent Quinnipiac poll numbers saying “it’s much too early to read anything meaningful into it.”

Amann, who tomorrow night officially kicks off his campaign for governor, says the numbers are no surprise. “The two other Democrats included in the poll have run statewide previously. And in the case of the secretary of state, multiple times. The poll reflects that. This early on, simple name recognition will get you numbers,” he said.

Amann also noted that he is increasing his support in a head-to-head match-up against Governor Rell. “As in the case of Dick Blumenthal, I don’t think the governor will run. That will clear the way for us to pick up Rell supporters as we move forward.”

Well, if Jodi Rell wasn’t running for re-election before, she will be after seeing that (in fact…)! What, is he daring her to get in?

Amann kicks off his campaign tomorrow night at the Klein in Bridgeport.

GOP Chairman Chris Healy also responded to the poll, gleefully sending out an update to his party’s email list saying that Dodd had fallen into a “dark hole” and said of Jodi Rell: “Gov. Rell remains very popular at 75 percent because people trust her and see her as fair, level headed and a strong leader.”

First Read and other national media picked up on Dodd’s absolutely miserable numbers. He is in trouble, there is no doubt about it, and Rob Simmons’ name is the one that’s coming up most often as his potential opposition. There was also a lengthy article in the subscription-only Roll Call about a potential Simmons challenge (thanks to all those who sent that article to me!). Here’s a quote from the article:

Although Simmons was coy about 2010, he touted his service as an aide to former Sens. John Chafee (R-R.I.) and Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.) as proof of his ability to straddle the spectrum of the Republican Party. Simmons was also fast to criticize Dodd for not foreseeing the economic crisis as chairman of the Banking panel, as well as not disclosing the details of a well-publicized deal he got on a mortgage for his home.

“Sen. Dodd has disappointed a lot of his supporters up here in Connecticut with his activities over the last several years,” Simmons said. “He left the state, moved to Iowa, to pursue what turned out to be a frivolous attempt to run for president of the United States of America.”

It’s not hard to see both Iowa and Dodd’s mortgage as potential lines of attack, and Simmons is a very tough campaigner. If he did run, he would pull no punches. How would Dodd react to sustained, high-profile criticism from a legitimate opponent? No one has any idea, as it has never happened.

For Amann and Malloy, there’s lots of time to make up ground on Susan Bysiewicz, whose lead is most likely very soft as people are not even remotely tuned into the next governor’s race. Dodd, however, would seem to have more to worry about. I wish Quinnipiac had polled a matchup between Dodd and Simmons. Maybe next time.

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6 responses to “Everyone Responds to Q-Poll

  1. AndersonScooper

    Amann’s predicating his entire run on Rell dropping out?

    He’s right in knowing that he can’t beat her, but who wants to get behind a campaign that weak?

    As I thought, Bysiewicz matches up much better against Rell. I’m leaning her way.

    Malloy is smart enough to rub the state competently, but what makes him think he can beat Susie?

    I believe he’d be better off rolling the dice against Dodd. (Although the thought of DLC Dan as in the US Senate makes me want to smile, then puke.)

    Anyway, another fun cycle. Gotta love CT politics!

  2. 4 percent? WOW! Great job, Mr. Speaker–getting out of the gate quickly is overrated anyway. But it’s a little tougher to spin your way out of bad news with your innane quips and nonsensical babbling when you don’t have your supermajority behind you to back it up. Where, o where was spinmeister Pat Scully today? Maybe trying to find out who, in fact, is actually planning on attending tomorrow night’s extravaganza. But take heart, Mr. Amann, when you’re in the basement the only way to go is up.

  3. “Sen. Dodd has disappointed a lot of his supporters up here in Connecticut with his activities over the last several years,” Simmons said. “He left the state, moved to Iowa, to pursue what turned out to be a frivolous attempt to run for president of the United States of America.”

    Scoop… did you take a job as Simmons’ speechwriter??

    haha… the Iowa line will pay dividends for years!

  4. Some quick primary numbers, to use as a gauge if there is either a Dem or GOP primary for Senate:

    Lieberman / Lamont – 8/8/06

    http://www.sots.ct.gov/sots/lib/sots/electionservices/electionresults/2006_august_primary/us_senator_by_town.pdf

    136,000 Lieberman
    146,000 Lamont

    GOP Presidential primary – 2/5/08

    http://www.ct.gov/sots/lib/sots/2008RepPresPrimarySOV-All.pdf

    151,000 votes cast

    CT-4 House race

    http://www.ct.gov/sots/lib/sots/electionservices/electionresults/2008_election_results/2008_primary_results_&_turnout.pdf

    Himes – 12,260
    Whitnum – 1,840

    total = 14,100 x 5 = 70,500

    If there is GOP primary, my guess is a turnout of no more than 100,000. A Dem primary would be more like 150,000?

    Peter Schiff for Senate 2010!

  5. Malloy is smart enough to rub the state competently, but what makes him think he can beat Susie?

    At first glance, this looks like just another typo. But upon reflection, it might just be one of the most insightful things I’ve read in a long time… 😉

    The economy is in the crapper. Property taxes are crushing the middle class while the rich are being inconvenienced by waiting another year before replacing that ’05 Lexus. We are spending a sh*tload of money on a nice shiny new rail car maintenance facility and you still can’t get there from here by train,

    But don’t worry, the next governor is offering free back rubs.

  6. ….. the next governor is offering free back rubs.

    You mean this woman really is our Susan?

    I thought she looked familar!

    Gotta say, that’s a heckuva campaign strategy!

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