Quinnipiac: Simmons Edges Dodd

I suspected it would be close.

I didn’t think it would be essentially tied.

1. If the two thousand ten election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were – Chris Dodd the Democrat, Rob Simmons the Republican, for whom would you vote?
….
Dodd – 42%
Simmons – 43%

That is astonishing. Simmons does especially well in the second district, but incredibly the two are tied in the first district, 44%-44%. Yes, the first district, a Democratic stronghold.

Dodd fares better against Sam Caligiuri, defeating him 47%-34%. Dodd is still not above 50%, however, against a relatively unknown state senator.

Dodd also defeats Larry Kudlow 46%-34%. Again, he isn’t above 50% against a CNBC host.

Dodd’s job approval ratings are actually up to 49% from 41% last month, suggesting that his mortgage issues are helping to drag him down. Another big problem for Dodd is that when asked if they approve of the job Dodd is doing as head of the banking committee, only 32% said yes, while 50% said no.

These numbers are nothing short of catastrophic for a longtime incumbent like Dodd.

Time to consider retirement?

Rell, Obama Popular

There’s good news for Jodi Rell and Barack Obama–Connecticut voters still like them. Rell’s approval rating is sky-high at 75%, while Obama’s is slightly lower at 67%. Rell also gets high marks for her handling of the economy and the state budget.

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40 responses to “Quinnipiac: Simmons Edges Dodd

  1. Dodd also defeats Larry Kudlow 46%-34%. Again, he isn’t above 50% against a CNBC host.

    Imagine if he were running against Maria Bartiromo or Michelle Caruso Cabrera!

  2. Maybe Dodd should twitter?

  3. Running to work now… did the poll include name recognition numbers on either Kudlow or Caligiuri?

  4. These numbers have to be pretty soft. Everyone but Dodd has been controlling the narrative until now — once his campaign kicks into gear and he goes on the air, people will remember the fuzzy feelings they have towards Dodd.

  5. Hmmm… looks like Dodd needs a political Bailout Package from Obama…

  6. GAME ON! SIMMONS 2010!

    Perhaps with these poll numbers the story of Chris Dodd’s Ireland cottage will be further investigated.

  7. AndersonScooper

    Having seen the harm done to Senator Dodd by his lack of forthrightness about his Countrywide mortgages, I’ve got to agree that if Dodd can’t answer the GOP’s questions about his real estate dealings and his financial relationships with Edward Downe Jr., –then it time for Senator Dodd to retire. (in favor of Dick Blumenthal or someone else.)

    It’s not fun to point it out, but it is Dodd’s ego alone that has put what should be a safe seat at terrible risk. If Dodd had sunk so low by fighting for Dem causes, I’d have his back to the end. But instead it’s my Dem causes that are suddenly at risk.

    Again, Senator Dodd needs to prove that there isn’t a Ted Stevens/John Rowland type scandal lurking
    in regards to his Galway cottage and his old D.C. condo. The GOP isn’t going to quit asking about his financial dealings, and if things were indeed on the up-and-up, now is the time to prove so.

  8. Running to work now… did the poll include name recognition numbers on either Kudlow or Caligiuri?

    “For Simmons, 53 percent do not know enough to form an opinion. Caligiuri and Kudlow are even more unknown, at 88 and 87 percent.”

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1272

    This is a terrible story for Dodd, but I am not sure how Simmons, a six year Congressman, can claim “new blood”. I think this poll plays out better for Caligiuri, or even Kudlow, who both kept Dodd under 50%, with minimal name recognition.

  9. While we’re all distracted with Dodd vs anybody; and it did get a mention in the original post;

    Jodi Rell a 75 – 19 percent approval rating.

    Does it really matter who the Dems wind up nominating?

    I think not.

    Jodi does show up, she can work a room with more grace than even Jackie Kennedy could and carries herself with at least as much charm.

    Most voters that meet her even once, tend to be “hers” from that point forward.
    It’s next to impossible to not like her.

    There are of course notable exceptions such as Ken K ; but the other side of that coin is Will Rogers never met him.

  10. This is a terrible story for Dodd, but I am not sure how Simmons, a six year Congressman, can claim “new blood”. I think this poll plays out better for Caligiuri, or even Kudlow, who both kept Dodd under 50%, with minimal name recognition.

    I agree. Caligiuri has much more potential for growth, and he’s already in the mid 30s (which is amazing considering his name recognition). Dodd/Caligiuri reminds me of Simmons/Gedenson, when Simmons was the unknown, or Murphy/Johnson when Murphy was the unknown.

  11. Soggy Bottom Boy

    AS stuff here is awfully lame.

    “Simmons can’t win, Simmons can’t win”

    SECOND poll released showing Dodd in peril?

    “Well he MIGHT be in trouble”

    Ya think?

    Posting a zillion times a day doesn’t mean one has their finger on the pulse, just means they need external validation. Badly.

  12. If Dodd had sunk so low by fighting for Dem causes, I’d have his back to the end. But instead it’s my Dem causes that are suddenly at risk.

    When has Dodd not supported Democrat causes? Just asking. His voting record in congress tracks with Kennedy’s, and he’s one of the most leberal senators in the North East.

  13. Dodd is finished, and we can only hope his ego and arrogance keeps him in the race until the bitter end. When an unremarkable former Congressman beats a five term incumbent Senator, there is more than blood in the water – And a good show by new GOP darling Sam Caligiuri. Once his name gets out more, his numbers will only go up.

  14. When has Dodd not supported Democrat causes? Just asking. His voting record in congress tracks with Kennedy’s, and he’s one of the most leberal senators in the North East.

    In a rare defense of Scooper – I think he meant if the cause of Dodd’s problems resulted from his fight for Dem causes…..not that Dodd wasn’t fighting for them.

  15. AndersonScooper

    Thanks Sixpack.

    Dodd is twenty points behind CT’s “generic Dem” numbers, and it’s primarily self-afflicted. i.e. It’s not because Senate Dems rammed through health care.

    And Soggy Bottom–

    I pray to God that it’s Simmons. Out-of-touch old guy vs. out-of-touch old guy match-up is our best hope to hold this seat. (that is unless someone retires, or has the balls to primary Dodd.)

  16. If I were Blumenthal, and the only thing I ever wanted in politics was to be a US Senator, I’d put some money together and poll what my numbers would look like against Dodd in a primary.

    He can try to wait until 2012, but 3 years is an eternity in politics.

    I don’t see him, or anyone else doing anything though. Within the party I don’t see the disdain for Dodd like there was for Lieberman leading up to 2006.

  17. These numbers have to be pretty soft. Everyone but Dodd has been controlling the narrative until now — once his campaign kicks into gear and he goes on the air, people will remember the fuzzy feelings they have towards Dodd.

    Everyone seems to think these numbers are bad but they really aren’t. Yes, Dodd is a long-term incumbent. But Rob Simmons is a generic Republican with high name recognition within his party. If Caligiuri had these numbers, Dodd would be shitting himself. The election is a year and a half away……. the only thing this poll tells us is two things we already knew: Dodd has taken a big hit because of Countrywide and Simmons has high name recognition among Republicans.

    The Rell numbers, on the other hand, are something actually worth talking about. WOW.

  18. To my way of seeing, the Dodd and Rell poll numbers are notable mainly for the stories they tell about the two parties and their media operations.

  19. AndersonScooper

    What Matt W, do you think there is a problem with Rell’s 69-23% favorability numbers, among Dems?!

    For the record I’ve told Susie B., and Ned, (and I will tell Dan), that if in 2009 Dems don’t get together, on message, and make the case against Rell and divided government, — we might as well not bother in 2010.

    Where is our Dem leadership??

  20. AndersonScooper

    You also have got to love the fact that 63% of CT voters believe we can balance the budget without tax increases. Yeah, right.

    And that includes 66% of Indies, and 51% of Democrats.

    Rell is getting away with the Big Lie. And our side’s messaging sucks.

  21. “If Dodd can’t answer the GOP questions?” How come when a Republican gets accused of something he has to answer to the Democrats, the newspapers, the unions and the “good government” people. Hey where are those good government people? Dodd only has to answer to the Republicans? Weird how that works.

    I’d love to know Tom Swan’s take on this? lol!!! I’m sure he’d rather be eating a cheesburger in his spare time than come to this board but he was soo passionate about good goverment that it would be great to get his insight.

    How about Andy Sauer…his commitment towards good government is just as phoney. Guarantee the next time a Repub gets int rouble he’ll be out there calling for new campaign finance laws. Two dopes!!!

  22. i think its time to acknowledge that the quinnipiac poll is a conservative republican tool. those numbers on simmons and rell are bullshit.

  23. You also have got to love the fact that 63% of CT voters believe we can balance the budget without tax increases. Yeah, right.

    absolutely right! no way we can do this without a tax increase, and no way we can do it without wealthy people contributing more. if you are rich you need to start paying your fair share.

    the dems proved last night that we would have to cut all those state employees, close prisons and college campuses without a tax increase. let’s do it already!

  24. i think its time to acknowledge that the quinnipiac poll is a conservative republican tool. those numbers on simmons and rell are bullshit.

    That is one of the more ridiculous statements I have seen on CT Local Politics.

  25. That is one of the more ridiculous statements I have seen on CT Local Politics.

    If you want to see more of the same insane crap you can go to Left Nuts where they just insinuate the poll is invented.

    http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=3B25C4B158F4EB759BA50707D7952022?diaryId=11164

    Deliciously moronic.

  26. For the record I’ve told Susie B., and Ned, (and I will tell Dan), that if in 2009 Dems don’t get together, on message, and make the case against Rell and divided government, — we might as well not bother in 2010.

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say they don’t listen to you. And I don’t mean just as a matter of practice.

  27. AndersonScooper

    Headless, are you still a front-pager? It’s been such a long-time….

  28. Bruce Rubenstein

    Rell’s popularity isnt made up…..the public just simply has a good impression of her…as a realistic moderate republican. Is she unbeatable in 2010 ? no one is….but it will take someone who runs a flawless campaign and all the rest of the intangibles have to break for the domocrats.At this early stage it is doubtful, but there is time.

    I do like Dodd….no surprise there…if any of his staff is peering into this blog please, please ask him to be more forthcoming on the information regarding his old condo…home in Ireland and his countryside mortgage. The public is not happy with what they perceive as stalling and it has infected his numbers with all polling.

  29. I do like Dodd….no surprise there…if any of his staff is peering into this blog please, please ask him to be more forthcoming on the information regarding his old condo…home in Ireland and his countryside mortgage. The public is not happy with what they perceive as stalling and it has infected his numbers with all polling.

    If coming clean was less damaging than the stonewall, why wouldn’t they have done so already?

  30. AndersonScooper

    Chances of Dodd revealing his actual financial arrangements with real estate partners Downe and Kessinger? (and please let’s don’t forget Sanford Bomstein).

    If everything was strictly on the up-and-up, the chances are very good.

    If not, I doubt we’ll hear a peep. Particularly since what he did might well have been legal.

    Personally I don’t like the idea of my elected leaders having real estate partners on their second homes. Particularly when they ultimately end up in full possession of the property.

  31. absolutely right! no way we can do this without a tax increase, and no way we can do it without wealthy people contributing more. if you are rich you need to start paying your fair share.

    How about you just not spend as much money? I don’t have the figures in front of me but I know that spending in Connecticut has far outstripped inflation. What are we getting for all that additional spending?

    I seem to recall I-84 having to be rebuilt through Waterbury / Southington because of substandard work / fraud. Perhaps we can waste less state resources on criminals bent on ripping off the taxpayers? That’d be nice for a change.

  32. Speaking of I-84… did Blumenthal ever conclude his investigation?

  33. Dodd hasn’t done an honest days work in his life. He has taking money along with his buddy Barney from the banking executives from Fannie and Freddie while preventing legislation that would have regulated them. He and Barney watched the entire subprime crisis unfold and did nothing. And now they are both entrusted with fixing the problem. What a joke. The entire Democrat leadership, Reid, Pelosi, Dodd, Frank, Murtha should all go for being ethically challenged.

  34. One of the biggest mistakes in politics (or War or Life) is to underestimate your opponent. Dodd is wounded right now and when anyone is backed into a corner they will fight harder to get out.

    With that said, Simmons numbers are great right now. Look at the CD’s where he has the lowest Name ID — the 4th and 5th — the EXACT areas where a GOP candidate can get the most gain. Simmons upside is huge.

    The other GOP candiates both are at 34 percent. Seems that ANYONE can be against Dodd and get 34 percent…so that is the negative base on Dodd right now.

    Bottom line: the GOP NEEDS Dodd to stay in the race to have a chance in 2010. If the GOP scares Dodd out, Blumie at 81% Fav will come in a steal the seat.

    Long live Chris Dodd.

  35. One of the biggest mistakes in politics (or war or life) is to underestimate your opponent. Dodd is wounded right now and when anyone is backed into a corner they will fight harder to get out.

    With that said, Simmons numbers are great right now. Look at the CD’s where he has the lowest Name ID — the 4th and 5th — the EXACT areas where a GOP candidate can get the most gain. Simmons upside is huge.

    The other GOP candiates both are at 34 percent. Seems that ANYONE can be against Dodd and get 34 percent…so that is the negative baseline on Dodd right now.

    Bottom line: the GOP NEEDS Dodd to stay in the race to have a chance in 2010. If the GOP scares Dodd out, Blumie at 81% Fav will come in and steal the seat.

    Long live Chris Dodd.

  36. Sorry about that…hit the submit button twice!

  37. AndersonScooper

    To which I say, Draft Dick.

    Or maybe Susie B. will realize the futility of running against Rell, what when her favorable/unfavorable numbers are a whopping 69-23%, amongst freakin’ Dems. And at least Susie has balls.

    But Rooster, you are right. Without a stubborn Dodd, you guys have no chance.

  38. But Rooster, you are right. Without a stubborn Dodd, you guys have no chance.

    Ah, Scooper….we semi-agree again…albeit for different reasons. First Calhoun, now the fact that the GOP needs Dodd to run.

    Your problem is whom amongst you in the CT Dems can have the “talk” with Dodd to tell him he’s cooked? Somehow I don’t see your State Chair Nancy Dinardo having the gravitas to pull that conversation off, do you?

    You can “draft Dick” all you want….Dodd’s running because no one in your party can stand up to him.

  39. absolutely right! no way we can do this without a tax increase, and no way we can do it without wealthy people contributing more. if you are rich you need to start paying your fair share.

    the dems proved last night that we would have to cut all those state employees, close prisons and college campuses without a tax increase. let’s do it already!

    Yikes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: You’re scary, pal. Even PoopyScoopy, who has the patent on drinking the Dem Kool-Aid, isn’t this far gone.

    The only thing the Dems proved last night is that Chris “Six Figures” Donovan’s press aide is making $164,999 a year more than he’s worth, and Donny “Can’t Count” Williams still forgets how many members of his caucus come from Fairfield County.

    The whole “$2.8 billion in cuts we will never make” charade was greeted with a mix of contempt and outright hostility by the Capitol press corps, who have lost whatever patience they ever had with these amateur-hour theatrics.

    Meanwhile, if the DummyDumb Dems think they can pass a tax increase on the “wealthy” and overrride a veto, they better have a lot more riding on that veto than parking places for the likes of McDonald, Duff and Hartley …

  40. Speaking of I-84… did Blumenthal ever conclude his investigation?

    Has he ever concluded anything before?

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