R2000: Dodd Holds Small Lead over Simmons

Daily Kos commissioned a poll for the U.S. Senate race, the results of which you can see here. A word of explanation: though Daily Kos is a partisan site, they use Research 2000, a reputable independent pollster, to conduct their surveys.

They found Sen. Chris Dodd holding on to a narrow lead over Rob Simmons, 45%-40%. The very bad news for Dodd here is that he is still under 50%. Dodd’s favorability ratings are a little better, with 47% viewing him favorably, and 40% viewing him unfavorably. Simmons, on the other hand, has a favorable/unfavorable of 41/18, with 41% having formed no opinion.

Dodd is doing very well among Democrats (precluding a primary challenge, perhaps) but he is losing among Republicans and independents. Races in Connecticut often hinge on the support of independent voters, and Dodd is not getting nearly enough of it.

Dodd does break 50% against Sam Caliguiri, winning 51%-30%. However, a whopping 82% of respondents have no opinion on Caligiuri, which would likely change if he mounts a strong campaign. Dodd also wins against Larry Kudlow, who recently declined to enter the race.

Lieberman Still Unpopular

Research 2000 also polled the 2012 election, and found that Joe Lieberman is in pretty terrible shape. 44% view him favorably, while 54% have an unfavorable view of him. Oddly, the race matchups they chose to run were Lieberman as an independent, either Richard Blumenthal or Ned Lamont as Democrats, and Jodi Rell as the Republican. Rell crushes all comers, unsurprisingly.

Does that mean that there’s a chance Connecticut could be represented by two Republicans in the Senate as 2013 dawns? Well, there isn’t much of a chance. 2012 is a long way away, Simmons is by no means guaranteed to win in 2010, and Rell probably won’t run. Still, that possibility is there. Six months ago, it wasn’t.

Link to full results.

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19 responses to “R2000: Dodd Holds Small Lead over Simmons

  1. AndersonScooper

    Does anyone have the breakdown of the sampling according to party affiliation?

    According to this poll, Simmons leads among Independents 48-36%. He also garners 8o% of the Republican, to Dodd’s 73% share of the Dem vote.

    Yet somehow he is behind Dodd by 5%?

    That doesn’t seem right. I’m curious what percent of the sample was Democrats. Did they use something like 40-D, 25-R, 35-I?

  2. AndersonScooper

    PS– there is a huge disconnect between Blumenthal’s Q-poll numbers, and those presented by this poll.

    The Q-poll had Blummie at 83-8%, Fav/UnFav. This poll has him at 42-23% !?!

  3. Does anyone have the breakdown of the sampling according to party affiliation?

    According tot he fine print:

    Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

    So roughly, roughly because I did the entire state rather than by county and then adding it up (lazy, I admit), 37%D-20%R-43%U. By my back of the envelope math (keeping in mind that I used state numbers rather than county numbers), the math seems to work out.

  4. I know our GOP friends on this site salivate at the numbers that put Dodd and Simmons in a narrow race. But let’s get serious: Simmons IS getting a primary either from Caliguiri, someone else, or all of the above. Dodd, on the other hand, is not going to get a primary. Dems may be unhappy with his performance or worried that he could possibly lose but the party is nowhere near their anger with Lieberman in 2006. The GOP candidates are going to have to shift to the right on abortion, foreign policy, taxes, opposition to the popular Obama, and the like. Re-hashing the Bush legacy for the next year and a half is going to do wonders to shifting independents….to Dodd.

    In my opinion, polls like this are useless. Dodd is going to work hard to keep his seat (his fiery editorials last weekend proved this). He will run like there is no tomorrow and, with the Republicans trying to one-up one another to varying degrees within their failed ideology, Dodd will be free to cruise through the state and clear his name.

    Dodd isn’t a shoe-in (no politician ever is). But these polls are not as scary as a lot of people on both sides think they are.

  5. Another odd note, Rell does worse among women than men, in all categories. I’ve never seen that in any poll over the last 4 years.

  6. This week Rasmussen Reports added some questions to their polling. They find that 76% of people are Populists and 7% of people are of The Political Class.

    I know Scoop and others want credit card reform. I offer though that’ll end up nibbling at the edges. And 18 months from now Dodd may be seen as a very strong member of The Political Class. If so, he’s probably toast.

    My suggestion to Dodd… stop the bailouts and subpoena the information being hidden by The Fed. Credible journalists are trying to find out where the $10 trillion has gone that that The Fed printed in the past year or so. And they’re getting nowhere. Instead, Dodd blows smoke and takes no action. But HE IS THE BANKING CHAIRMAN!!! He has no excuse for failing to get the information, except for what appears to be political doublespeak.

    He could enhance transparency without so much as lifting a finger. But he doesn’t. Why?

    I conclude that he is not a Populist. He is a member of The Political Class.

    I hope he proves me wrong.

  7. What dumbfounds me is that Wikipedia says Rosa’s husband (Stan Greenberg) says that the Dems must be seen as Populists if they are to govern.

    Geithner, Bernanke & Summers are clearly of The Political Class.

    Why does Obama keep them? Why doesn’t Dodd challenge them?

    If the economy continues to weaken, members of The Political Class will likely pay a heavy price in 2010.

  8. AndersonScooper

    Can I suggest that “voter registration by county” is not a great likely-voter screen? Particularly not in an off-cycle.

    Nothing against Dodd. It’s just hard to believe that his numbers went up this week. Not after the AIG pounding he took.

  9. Can I suggest that “voter registration by county” is not a great likely-voter screen? Particularly not in an off-cycle.

    I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but I would challenge you to suggest a better one more than 18 months before the election. In other words, there is no great likely voter screen this far out…

  10. Nothing against Dodd. It’s just hard to believe that his numbers went up this week. Not after the AIG pounding he took.

    Is this the first Research 2000 poll? If you’re just comparing it to Quinnipiac, it may not be that he went up, just that they’re using different assumptions about the makeup of the electorate.

    I have to say though, polling saturation this far out is pretty damn depressing.

  11. I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but I would challenge you to suggest a better one more than 18 months before the election. In other words, there is no great likely voter screen this far out…

    If I understand it correctly, “by county” sounds useless.

    I’d use 2002 turnout. People who turned out for Governor will turn out again. As long as you confirm the correct name for a particular address / phone number… that oughta work quite well… for a hypothetical general election.

    Sure, some people would be gone from that particular address / number… but for the most part your data set should still be random enough to offer a good sampling.

    As for Dem or GOP likely primary voters, I’d go with the Feb 08 POTUS primaries.

    One small factor may be foreclosures between now and Nov 2010. Will it impact particular towns / demographics more than others?

  12. sorry… I’d combine 2002 and 2006 data sets… and focus on people who turned out in at least two of the 02 / 04 /06 races. Maybe mix that up with the 08. Susie B oughta have that data and the polling should be relatively good – based on a hypothetical election being held today.

  13. Geithner, Bernanke & Summers are clearly of The Political Class.

    There’s a great term that I like using (even though I didn’t make it up) — “Luxury Class Democrats.” Though Bernanke is a Republican, I think.

    One small factor may be foreclosures between now and Nov 2010. Will it impact particular towns / demographics more than others?

    I was at a forum recently where it was revealed that Bridgeport had experienced 2000 foreclosures in the last year, while Westport had experienced 2. So it’s probably fair to say that it’ll impact certain demographics more than others.

    If I understand it correctly, “by county” sounds useless.

    Census data is tabulated by county, so if you’re going to do demographic weighting, it’s helpful to get your data into a form where you can easily make apples-to-apples comparisons.

  14. There’s a great term that I like using (even though I didn’t make it up) — “Luxury Class Democrats.” Though Bernanke is a Republican, I think.

    I should add that that’s a term I use to describe the subset of Dems who like to dump on working people while protecting the interests of the same high rollers that bet our whole economy on these crazy ponzi schemes. Think Evan Bayh or Jim Amann.

  15. Nothing against Dodd. It’s just hard to believe that his numbers went up this week. Not after the AIG pounding he took.

    Is this the first Research 2000 poll? If you’re just comparing it to Quinnipiac, it may not be that he went up, just that they’re using different assumptions about the makeup of the electorate.

    Or we’re overreacting to statistical noise. Dodd’s number is only up 3 compared to the Quinnipiac poll; Simmons’ is down 3. Dodd’s inability to get to 50% against his most likely opponent is the only real story from these two polls. Little too early for the horserace stuff.

  16. Matt said:

    I should add that that’s a term I use to describe the subset of Dems who like to dump on working people while protecting the interests of the same high rollers that bet our whole economy on these crazy ponzi schemes. Think Evan Bayh or Jim Amann.

    And my point is that it also applies to many in the GOP. So I agree with Rasmussen:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/ideology/55_of_americans_are_populist_7_support_the_political_class

    that it’s a useful measurement tool.

    I recall a year ago you tattooed Ron Paul for a number of issues, most of which I agreed with Dr. Paul. But I felt they were “fully vetted” issues in terms of liberal vs. conservative ideology… so your stances made sense to me.

    There was one issue though that I never understood you taking him to task – his opposition to The Fed.

    For me, monetary policy is a virtually unvetted issue. And when I look at monetary policy coming to the fore (in terms of bailouts), I see the two camps forming. There are Populists who (in their own way) side with people over big business:

    Reps. Kucinich, and Paul
    Sens. Feingold, Sanders and Demint

    But the majority of Congress supports The Political Class on votes like the bailouts. Or tacitly supporting The Political Class by remaining silent on bailouts like AIGs initial $85 billion.

    And what really got me this week was when Arianna Huffington got it 100% right… The Political Class tell us to support their initiatives or Civilization Will End As We Know It.

  17. Thomas Hooker

    Interesting that of all the politicians about whom they polled, only Barack Obama and Jodi Rell have higher approval ratings than Ned Lamont. So for all those who were calling him a loser and a bad politician, looks as though Ned is coming back stronger than ever- and has positioned himself very nicely for either a gubernatorial or senatorial run.

    And Lieberman loses to everybody- and I mean everybody! If they polled AIG’s CEO against Lieberman, I’d bet Lieberman would still lose!

    Two more points. If Simmons really does get in the race, his positive ratings could go down fast when people figure out that he’s a George Bush Republican. Do we really want a former CIA agent in there who believes that we should have kept fighting the Vietnam War and who was a stanch defender of an open-ended war in Iraq? Simmons is not a very appealing personality. I don’t think Connecticut is ready to reverse this region’s trend toward throwing out right-wing Republicans like him.

    Now Grandma Rell is a different story. Unlike Simmons and Shays, Rell ran for the Litchfield Hills every time George Bush came within miles of Connecticut airspace. But after she tells us she has to raise taxes to close the real budget gap come this April, will she really look all that appealing to the voters? Problematic.

  18. Interesting that of all the politicians about whom they polled, only Barack Obama and Jodi Rell have higher approval ratings than Ned Lamont.

    He also has one of the highest unfavs (37 percent) of the lot. so your point is, well, pointless.

    finally, underestimate Simmons at your own risk. your “George Bush Republican”/right-wing Republican just isn’t true. In fact, those tags didn’t work so well in 2006 (Simmons lost by 83 votes in a district that was 23 percent GOP). They are less effective 3 years later.

    The fact is as the dust is settling around this financial crisis, Dodd and Bush seem to have more in common than Simmons and Bush.

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