Schiff Releases Poll Showing Him Barely Behind Dodd

Peter Schiff’s been doing a little polling to see how he might fare against Chris Dodd. He’s now releasing some of the results, and the answer is: not bad. Not great, considering how much trouble Dodd has been in, but not bad at all for someone with very little name recognition. Here are the results of the Wilson Research Strategies poll, which surveyed 400 likely voters June 24-25 (MoE +/- 4.9%). A few highlights:

Chris Dodd remains very weak in this deeply blue state that went 61% for Obama in 2008, allowing Peter Schiff to split the vote on the ballot inside the margin of error.
o Voters were asked: “If the general election for US Senate were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were (Choices Rotated)…”
Peter Schiff 38%
Chris Dodd 42%
Undecided/Ref 20%
 
Rob Simmons, who has been running for nearly six months, does not have a lock on the race against Dodd even though Simmons has likely benefited directly from any anti-Dodd sentiment and maintains higher name recognition than Peter Schiff.
o Voters were asked: “If the general election for US Senate were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were (Choices Rotated)…”
Rob Simmons 47%
Chris Dodd 38%
Undecided/Ref 15%

Interesting that Schiff would take a whack at Simmons in these results for not doing better–even though Simmons is leading Dodd by 9%.

Those of you who have been following along will note the similarity in numbers to last month’s Q-poll, where Simmons led Dodd 45-39, and Dodd led Caligiuri 41-39. If these numbers are anywhere near accurate, then Dodd’s recovery may have stalled out, despite some more favorable press of late. The poll was done after the ad Ted Kennedy did for Dodd came out.

It’s also interesting that Schiff is releasing these numbers. I can’t think that this is anything but a precursor to a run.

Not released or not surveyed: a head-to-head against Simmons.

Advertisements

10 responses to “Schiff Releases Poll Showing Him Barely Behind Dodd

  1. It’s also interesting that Schiff is releasing these numbers. I can’t think that this is anything but a precursor to a run.

    That is interesting — I wonder how he’ll file the cost of the poll since he hasn’t yet formed a campaign committee?

    It’s nice of him to help his competitors out by _publishing the evidence of his lawbreaking_ for them to use at their convenience later — that flaw looks like it runs in the family.

  2. samuel, what law did he break?

  3. That is interesting — I wonder how he’ll file the cost of the poll since he hasn’t yet formed a campaign committee?

    Doesn’t need to.

    He paid for it.

    You or I have the same right to do what we like with our own money, with the exception of tipping in some heathen owned Dunkin Donuts.

  4. I doubt he broke any law. While there’s little of anything that’s intuitive about campaign finance, Schiff recognizes that and will remain within the law.

    GC… I doubt he wanted to take a shot at Simmons. It sounds to me more about providing credibility to his poll.

    And Brenda… following up a question from you on a recent post… Nardello beat me 54% to 46%. And while I recognize the globals were against me in 2006, she had me beat regardless of the general anti-Republican sentiment.

  5. Also… if I recall correctly, I outraised Vickie $50k to $33k. So frankly, I see public funding as more of an exercise in the increasing the public’s trust in elections… rather than having a real impact on an election.

    Though that’s just my own experience in one election. And maybe there are lots of other people out there who are better candidates that I was… for whom the public funding will make all the difference.

  6. Not released or not surveyed: a head-to-head against Simmons.

    Probably the former reason as I’m sure he got smoked.

    I’m surprised Schiff is serious about running for the Senate, has he made any outreach efforts in CT? I know he was at the Libertarian Party convention, but what about RTC’s? He hasn’t appeared on any of the Sunday talk shows. You can’t run for office in CT by only showing up on Fox News talk shows and Comedy Central. Does this guy have the will/interest to actually communicate with CT voters?

    Schiff has also been a regular contributor to the paleoconservative website Taki’s Magazine. It provides some interesting insight into his philosophy.

  7. AndersonScooper

    Why does Schiff remind me so much of Dick Morris, that other self-absorbed egotist?

    Anyway, someone needs to tell the Schiff-ster that his poll amounts to little more than Generic Republican vs. Dodd. What evidence does he have that those who know him like him? (Beyond the Ron Paul maniacs.)

  8. samuel, what law did he break?

    The FEC requires anyone spending over $5000 to register as a candidate.

    Wilson Research Strategies charges over $8000 for a poll with a 300-voter sample size, and over $12,000 for a poll with a 500-voter sample size.

  9. The FEC requires anyone spending over $5000 to register as a candidate.

    Here’s what the FEC says:

    If you are running for the U.S. House, Senate or the Presidency, you must register with the FEC once you (or persons acting on your behalf) receive contributions or make expenditures in excess of $5,000. Within 15 days of reaching that $5,000 threshold, you must file a Statement of Candidacy authorizing a principal campaign committee to raise and spend funds on your behalf.

    So, Schiff hasn’t broken the law, or even come close to it. Even if he is formally running for the Senate (and that hasn’t been announced as of yet), he has another 14 days to file a Statement of Candidacy.

  10. @ AndersonScooper
    Schiff is nothing like the neoconservative Dick Morris. While Mr. Morris supported Bush and Clinton, Peter Sciff was smart enough to oppose both presidents.
    Ron Paul supporters are only “maniacs” if you believe following the Constitution is such a crazy idea; it is a concept which neither Dodd nor Lieberman quite understands.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s