Q-Poll: Simmons Pulling Away

Quinnipiac has released their latest poll on the U.S. Senate race, and the news is bad for Chris Dodd. Here’s the number you all want to see:

Simmons 48% (45%)
Dodd 39% (39%)

The pollster suggests that a mild rebound in his approval rating is hopeful for Dodd, however. Dodd’s approval rating is still 42% in favor, 52% against. Those numbers are better than before, but still bad.

The worst news for Dodd: he is still losing independent voters, a crucial block, by a huge margin: 56% – 27%. Dodd does well with Democrats, winning them 74% – 16%, but gets almost no Republican votes, and only a small share of independent votes. Maybe the only good news, and it’s pretty dubious, is that there are still independents who have not made up their minds.

So the race has stabilized after fluctuating a little, and Simmons is even starting to build on his lead.

Other Items

Simmons leads all GOP challengers by a very wide margin. Merrick Alpert only gets 18% of the vote against Dodd, compared with 24% in May. Simmons is still winning all congressional districts except the third, continuing that trend from last time.

35% say Dodd is honest and trustworthy. That number hasn’t changed since May.

In other polling matchups, Dodd edges Peter Schiff and Sam Caligiuri by 5% and 2% respectively. He is tied with Tom Foley. No one knows who Foley, Caligiuri or Schiff are.

Joe Lieberman breaks even with an approval/disapproval rating of 46%-46%.

Obama Slips

President Obama’s approval ratings are down to 63% from 71% in May. This is consistent with a drop in the president’s approval nationally. Gov. Rell is doing better than the president when it comes to job approval. A majority of voters approve of his handling of the economy, though they aren’t sure that his policies will help them in the long run.

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30 responses to “Q-Poll: Simmons Pulling Away

  1. Merrick Alpert only gets 18% of the vote against Dodd, compared with 24% in May.

    I guess Dodd spending $500,000 on TV ads wasn’t a total waste then, huh?

  2. My guess is Dodd will be at least tied with Simmons and maybe even a little ahead. I give it 44-42% in Dodd’s favor. (If not we’ll be seeing even more commercials).

    Scooper called this one right, LOL!

  3. Sen. Dodd, thank you very much for your 36 years of service.

  4. U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd’s advertising blitz hasn’t helped much.

    The recent Quinnipiac University poll puts it this way: “Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd trails former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons, a likely Republican challenger 48-39 percent in the 2010 Senate race, but he is inching up in his job approval to a negative 42-52 percent approval rating, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.”

    U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman, who has not poured money into advertising and outreach efforts to salvage support within the Democratic Party after his slide in the polls, is even-steven: The poll shows Lieberman with an approval-disapproval rating of 46-46. Dodd’s rating is 42-52 percent.

    Dodd’s slippage among independents, whose party affections are nil and whose ideology is eclectic, will be crucial in an election. Among independents, Dodd’s approval-disapproval rating is near fatal 56–27 percent.

    President Barack Obama’s approval-disapproval rating has fallen below that of Gov. Jodi Rell in Connecticut. The president’s ratings are down to 63 percent from 71 percent in May.

    The drop in support suggests Obama’s ideology is coming into focus with many voters.

    Dodd may now be considered a polarizing figure, while Lieberman’s contours are still fungible, an irritant to the left wing of his party. Obama’s silhouette has been sharpened by the liberal programs he supports. Ditto Dodd.

  5. Two observations:

    It’s got Simmons up 50%-39% in the First District. Rob got plenty of Hartford-based exposure when he was in Congress, but there still is no way that when voters actually vote that Rob will be beating Dodd in the First. I would suspect at least a ten point spread in the other direction.

    The improvement in Dodd’s standing among Democrats is more than offset by his erosion among Unaffiliated voters.

    One would suspect that Dodd doesn’t have much further up to go with Democrats – probably in the range of 90/10 support within his party. Ted Kennedy and the anti-lobbyist messages have done a decent job with Dems.

    It’s time for a new message aimed at Unaffiliated voters – health care and financial regulation may help, but those are Dodd’s piggybank industries and reinforces his trust problem.

    My guess is that the next commercial will feature Sen. Joe Lieberman, who 60% of Unaffiliated voters say is honest and trustworthy.

  6. blockquote>It’s got Simmons up 50%-39% in the First District. Rob got plenty of Hartford-based exposure when he was in Congress, but there still is no way that when voters actually vote that Rob will be beating Dodd in the First. I would suspect at least a ten point spread in the other direction.

    Heath, these numbers are not about Simmons. They are about Dodd and they prove that no amount of money can restore Dodd’s tainted reputation. Lieberman ads won’t help just like Obama ads didn’t.

    Add to this, people are getting fed up with the Democrats in power. Yes, even in this blue state, the pendulum is beginning to shift. Just look at the recent polls where more people blame the Democrats than the Republican Governor for the budget mess.

  7. Heath, I don’t see why you feel Dodd will win the First. Maybe, as this poll would indicate, his rating among indys is simply beyond repair. If so, in our state, a candidate can lose anywhere.

    Also, Obama’s falling approval bodes poor for health care reform nationally. If he’s at 63% here, there must be many states (we know of VA and OH from recent surveys) where he is below 50%, and previously awed Congressman now can flout his wishes much more casually.

  8. Chris Dodd: too little too late.

    He’s somewhat crippled: Dodd isn’t in the best position to help out on Health Care or other controversial Obama initiatives.

    I’m not much of a Simmons fan: I do think Schiff could win the seat if he runs a real campaign instead of a vanity campaign. Looking at Schiff’s web sites they have more to do with vanity and self-promotion than issues. I hope that changes.

  9. Looking at Schiff’s web sites they have more to do with vanity and self-promotion than issues. I hope that changes.

    It’s already too late.

  10. Heath, I don’t see why you feel Dodd will win the First. Maybe, as this poll would indicate, his rating among indys is simply beyond repair. If so, in our state, a candidate can lose anywhere.

    I’m as much of an optimist as anyone, but look at the numbers in the first:

    Total registration as of the October 2008 SOTS Report:

    GOP – 74491 (17%)
    DEM – 196770 (44%)
    Unaffil – 172880 (39%)

    Rob could win 70% of the vote among unaffiliated voters in the First District and still lose the First CD by 8%.

    If Rob got 80% of the unaffiliated vote in the 1st, then he would squeak out a 50.6% to 49.3% win.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think that there is a clear path to victory for Rob – I just don’t harbor any illusions much of that path goes through the First District.

  11. Heath, I don’t see why you feel Dodd will win the First.

    He could – the 1st is a brutal environment for the GOP.

    Not that I think for one second that the normals there actually believe the far left moveon nonsense they wind up voting for; however the district is loaded with habitual Democratic voters.

    If we could afford a series of informative “did you know?” commercials we could probably change that – got a couple million bucks floating around?

  12. Vincent – shoot me an email (take the “ACR” link it’ll get you there).

    While Heath *is* “just a kid” – his resume’s pretty good and he enjoys that rare mix of IQ and common sense.

    I’m literally twice his age but tend to follow his lead when it’s offered as I’ve learned to respect his opinion, and him as well.

  13. AndersonScooper

    Hard to believe Dodd didn’t close the gap further. So much for the trendline and all those TV ads.

    Anyway, somehow the gap has got to close or neither Dodd nor the CT GOP will get what they want, which is for Dodd to be the Dem nominee in 2010. (If Dodd isn’t in the race, Blumenthal wins going away.)

    Pretty soon it’s going to be time to Draft Dick, or Bust! Bottom line is that CT Dems are a bunch of idiots is they allow the GOP to take this seat with Mr. 80% sitting in the wings.

  14. Senator Dodd?

    It’s your dry cleaner on Line 1.

    Something about a large, smelly, brick-shaped stain in the seat of the pants you were wearing Thursday? …

  15. In an interview on WILI in Willimantic the other morning, Simmons likened the Rell administration to the Three Stooges for awarding a stimulus funded DOT contract to a Massachusetts company. Even with polling numbers like these, I don’t see Republican unity right around the corner .

  16. For someone who is at their computer 24/7, hard to believe it took you 6 hours to post. You must have collapsed in shock, given your previous expectations.

    Anyway, somehow the gap has got to close or neither Dodd nor the CT GOP will get what they want, which is for Dodd to be the Dem nominee in 2010. (If Dodd isn’t in the race, Blumenthal wins going away.)

    Chris is his father’s son. There is absolutely NO way he will not run.

    Hard t

  17. Lost blocking on that middle paragraph — is was Scoopy’s, not mine….

  18. Election fatigue sets in right about now.
    None of this makes any sense to me.
    The election is 16 months away – a virtual eternity – away.
    Why should I care about horse race polling numbers now?
    I don’t.
    What a bunch of hot air and hooey.

  19. Election fatigue sets in right about now.None of this makes any sense to me.The election is 16 months away – a virtual eternity – away.Why should I care about horse race polling numbers now?I don’t.What a bunch of hot air and hooey.

    Agreed 110%, and maybe more.

    The best way to avoid facing real issues is to obsess over elections, elections, elections. It seems to be more than just a hobby here. Who outpolled who? Who got that big endorsement? Who has the best campaign staff? Who raised more this quarter? Who made the best points on that TV shows that nobody watches? etc. etc. distraction irrelevance sleep….

    Here’s a better question for the Dems:

    Do you HAVE to settle for the same old crew of wanna-be governors and senators? Is there really a wit of significant difference, on the issues, on there records, between Bysiewicz and Lamont and Amman and Malloy and Dodd and Larson? Where are the new ideas? Where is the innovation? Where is the vision? Where is the demonstrated leadership?

    I see a mediocre crowd whose “vision” is to get elected – not much more. I DON’T see the courage and wisdom to confront the issues facing working- and middle-class CT residents AND come on top.

    Can’t you come up with some new names?? Can’t CT do better than this??

  20. TheRealNixon

    FYI: The Hotline has an interesting video on Dodd. They say they believe he is the winner of the campaign of incumbents least likely to return in 2011!

  21. Anyway, somehow the gap has got to close or neither Dodd nor the CT GOP will get what they want, which is for Dodd to be the Dem nominee in 2010. (If Dodd isn’t in the race, Blumenthal wins going away.)

    Pretty soon it’s going to be time to Draft Dick, or Bust! Bottom line is that CT Dems are a bunch of idiots is they allow the GOP to take this seat with Mr. 80% sitting in the wings.

    Scooper, you are right on the money in your analysis. I just hope the Dems are not paying any attention to you.

  22. AndersonScooper

    Puf–

    It’s just way too soon. (No one wants to lame duck Dodd during such an important legislative session.)

    It’ll be interesting to see how this breaks next winter. There are large factions within the CT party that would be happier with Blumenthal at the top of the ticket.

    This race could become expensive down-ticket.

    Me, I just don’t want to chance a Healy/Foley victory party with the national GOP in attendance. Not with so much of Dodd’s problems being self-inflicted.

  23. Scooper, you are right…… I just hope the Dems are not paying any attention to you.

    They haven’t yet!

  24. AndersonScooper

    Yo, ACR. That’s not entirely fair.

    Fact is, when I start speaking truth to the Dem establishment, I get emails and text messages. (You’d think they’d just call, so as not to leave a record.)

    Anyway, I’m not sure either Senator Lieberman or Senator Dodd knows my name, (Jim Amann does, that’s for sure), but I was told pretty directly that Mrs. Dodd reads everything you and I post on CTLP.

    So that’s kind of cool…

    When can we get that cup of coffee?

  25. AndersonScooper

    Just so we’re clear, even this little bit of http://www.DraftDick.com talk gets me in all sorts of trouble with the party’s insiders. (particularly the ones on the payroll.)

    Suggesting that maybe, just maybe, Dems nominate the guy with beaucoup name recognition, and 79% approval ratings, it’s tantamount to heresy…

  26. that Mrs. Dodd reads everything you and I post on CTLP.

    Good heavens – the poor woman!

    We need to find her a favorite charity or some other new hobby.

  27. I’m not much of a Simmons fan: I do think Schiff could win the seat if he runs a real campaign instead of a vanity campaign.

    FYI Ron Paulites are planning a $1 million moneybomb for Schiff on August 7th. That’s quite the goal, but 6,000 potential donors have already pledged.

    There is no doubt in my mind that Schiff can raise the money to run a real campaign. The question is when CT Republican primary voters actually learn about him will they laugh, recoil in horror, or join the teabaggers/birthers on the bus.

  28. Election fatigue sets in right about now.
    None of this makes any sense to me.
    The election is 16 months away – a virtual eternity – away.
    Why should I care about horse race polling numbers now?
    I don’t.
    What a bunch of hot air and hooey.

    You’re right, the horse race means very little, except for telling us what we already know, that this is a real race. However, the other numbers are meaningful.

  29. Hank Morgan

    I’m not much of a Simmons fan: I do think Schiff could win the seat if he runs a real campaign instead of a vanity campaign. Looking at Schiff’s web sites they have more to do with vanity and self-promotion than issues. I hope that changes.

    A dry sense of humor, I like that GoatBoy.

  30. Obama slips… Very quickly, according to Rassmussen http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
    : “Fifty-three percent (53%) now oppose the Congressional health care reform package. That’s up eight points over the past month. Just 20% now see health care as the most important of the President’s priorities. Nearly twice as many, 37%, say deficit reduction is most important.”

    The daily poll is worse: “The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 30% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-eight percent (38%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8 (see trends).
    Just 25% believe that the economic stimulus package has helped the economy.”

    Dodd has invested heavily in all this.

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